I still do not think Romney will win the upcoming US Election. But he is certainly gathering momentum. I remain an unreconstructed Obama supporter on so many levels but it is clear that slowly the momentum is swinging Romney's way. His choice of Ryan as VP has cemented his right flank, and the big guns of New Jersey's Chris Christie and other leading Republicans are now getting behind the man from Massachussetts.
But key problems remain for Romney:
- the economy may be the key issue but he still has failed to set out in sufficient detail what he would do if President, and how his economic strategy would be more successful than Obama's. The Financial Times, and many other papers both here and in the US have studied the alternative plans and I suspect their opinion as to the weakness of the alternative view of Romney will be proved right.
- the US Election is decided in certain key battleground states; it is definitely a tactical decision to hold the convention this week in Tampa, where Florida is a key swing state. But it is in Ohio and Pennsylvania that this election will probably be decided. Presupposing that Obama hangs onto the preference of female, Hispanic and Black voters then he wins big in manyswing states like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado so Romney has to win the 2 big heavy industry states of Pennsylvania and Ohio.
All the evidence of the campaigning Romney did in the last 2 years in those 2 key decisive states is that he is struggling to be the man they would like to see as "their sort of President". It is still a long way to go but my money still remains on Obama. Certainly, whoever wins the "Bellweather" of Ohio will almost certainly win the election.
If you wanted to see if Romnery or Obama wins you would spend a week criss crossing Ohio going to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus and the farmlands between to see who will win. It is in towns of 50,000+ people like Springfield, Kettering , Mansfield and Cuyahoga Falls that this election will be decided.
I would love to do this straw poll road trip, but we have plenty enough here in the UK to sort out in the interim.