I pick the Irish 25-1 shot Big Shu to land the odds in the National.
Everyone knows you need a great jumper, and Big Shu certainly fits the bill, having won over the towering fences of the Cheltenham Cross Country race. He stays and has both a touch of class and a racing weight at 10 stone 8. I spoke to connections of Big Shu last month and know that they have prepared him specially for this race, and that they will be welcoming the recent softening of the ground.
There is a huge gamble on the Zara Phillips and Mike Tindall owned Monbeg Dude, but I have real concerns about his ability to jump round. He always seems to really clout a fence in any race and you cannot do that at Aintree, even with the softening of the fences.
The big dangers in my opinion are Teaforthree, last year’s third and Triolo D’Alene, who won the Hennessy in November relatively easily. I would love to make the case for North Eastern owner Graham Wylie’s top weight Tidal Bay but whilst he is a class act, he has to overcome two vital statistics: no 13-year-old has won since 1923 and no top weight since Red Rum in 1974. Tidal Bay is many things, but he is no Red Rum.
If you want an outsider then I think that Alan King’s Walkon, must go well at a massive 50-1.But I still think Big Shu is the bet of the day and he will carry my £10 each way. A longer version of this blog will appear in tomorrows Journal. I still have not hung my boots up yet and will hope to race at Liverpool one day.
So my forecast is:
1. Big Shu
2. Teaforthree
3. Triolo D’Alene
4. Walkon
