Wednesday, 3 February 2016

In Marco Rubio the Republicans may have found a candidate to give Hilary Clinton a run for the Presidency

The Iowa caucuses, in my view, are all about one man. Ignore the Trumpster, albeit his fire will continue to roar for a while. He will burn out. Ignore the serious religious fundamentalism of Ted Cruz, who won Iowa. The only Republican who has a real chance of widespread appeal, aside from a very narrow base, is Marco Rubio, the second generation son of Cuban immigrants. He came a close third in a seriously rural mid west state where he has limited appeal. His star is on the ascendancy.
As for Clinton she should see off Bernie Sanders, who is pursuing the Jeremy Corbyn approach.
Dan Hodges always writes well and his take on the American election is here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-election/12137191/Donald-Trump-and-Hillary-Clinton-are-damaged-but-the-Republicans-have-a-winner.html
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Tuesday, 2 February 2016

Westminster this week - banking life savers, the Entreprise Bill and health + forestry meetings dominate this week

This week sees debates on various matters but notably today there is the enterprise bill. I have a variety of meetings this week - most notably with the Church of England who are launching their Life Savers Programme, which is a great junior savings club. On Wednesday I have meetings with the new chief executive of the Northumbria Healthcare NHS Trust, and will be going to the forestry event which is in support of woodland planting in the north of England.
My plan is to be on the last train home on Wednesday night after votes, but this requires a lot of sprinting to and at Kings Cross!
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Monday, 1 February 2016

Iowa state republican election is the real start of a USA election campaign which Trump will not win

Every four years, when the race for the White House begins, Iowa - a place with six times more pigs than people - is thrust into the global spotlight. The voters decide today in Iowa. Their opinions will matter, but this is merely one event in a long campaign. 
Why do presidential candidates - and the world's media - descend on Des Moines in the middle of a bitterly cold winter? It's all because Iowa holds the first contest in the months-long nomination battle. 
What is this election like? It's like sending all our politicians to any British county, for months in mid winter to try and persuade only 20% of the voters (or less than that number who turn out in the republican primary) to vote in dozens of caucuses. By all accounts Trump seems likely to beat Cruz, who has worked the state hardest, but the likely long term winner is Rubio. I certainly do not subscribe to the view that Trump will win the republican nomination.
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