France puts 2 candidates through to their final run off next May. Whoever wins the centre right part of the ticket in all probability wins the French election next year. In theory. There are three big challengers to the left. Le Pen, who is France's Farage, Sarkozy, and Alan Juppe, the former mayor of Bordeaux. Juppe is ahead, but do not underestimate Le Pen. 2 top candidates from any wing go through to the final decider.
Hollande will probably not stand given his present dire poll ratings, so if a left of centre takes on a right of centre candidate the right of centre will win. The key to the whole election is therefore who takes that right of centre slot. Juppe is still favourite, but Le pen is close. Very close, as the spectator explains. It is worth a read.
My guess is that the final two will be Le pen and Juppe. Given that Juppe is closer to the middle ground he ought to win such a contest. And yet they said the same about Clinton ....