Policy North Conference - This Friday 10-3.30 - with James Wharton, Northern Powerhouse Minister

In what has been a busy week for the country as a whole, we all need to think about the next steps we can take individually and collectively to make our futures as prosperous as possible.

Accordingly, there's still chance to secure your place at Friday's Policy North event in Newcastle. The day will question what is on the horizon for the Northern Powerhouse, and how local businesses can thrive.

Some of the North East's leading business figures will provide an engaging array of talks, panel discussions, and questions and answers. More so, James Wharton MP, Minister for the Northern Powerhouse, will be providing us with a keynote speech detailing how the area will adapt in these uncertain post-'Brexit' times.

I've attached the poster below - if you would like to know more about the work Policy North does as a Think Tank, then they can be found here - http://www.policynorth.com/

Equally, if you have any more questions, or would like to come along, then please don't hesitate to get in touch.

Why this MP has not decided who should be our next leader

Let me start with our Prime Minister David Cameron. In the febrile atmosphere of “The King is dead, long live the King” I do want to pause first, and write a few words about the man who I have been proud to serve for six years.

David is a great man and has been a great Prime Minister. I am genuinely very upset that he will not be our country’s leader going forward. His departure is only just beginning to sink in and I think many will come to miss his pragmatic leadership. No one in the House of Commons doubts that he is a decent man, who has done an almost impossible job incredibly well. He has practiced the fiscal robustness and social liberalism that I wholeheartedly endorse. Under his watch, we have recovered from a recession: we have more jobs, apprenticeships and new businesses than our competitors, and generally have slowly turned this country around. He has reformed welfare, schooling and apprenticeships, but also addressed social justice in so many ways: as he put it when he spoke in the Commons on Monday, he is very proud of-

“keeping our promises to the poorest people in the world, increasing people's life chances, building a bigger and stronger society, and enabling those who love each other to get married whatever their sexuality.”

In an abnormal world, he is a PM that remains very normal, and very human. He is a family man and has real empathy. I cannot tell you how many Labour MPs have made clear their individual sadness at his departure. Whatever your politics, in the House of Commons we all get behind our Prime Minister.

I serve in the government Whips Office and, until his departure, I continue to serve the PM; I will also get behind and support 110% whoever is our new Prime Minister. 

A decision has been made

I fought very hard to get the country to Remain in the EU, both in Hexham, and the wider the North. But the country decided differently, and by a decisive margin. I respect that decision and do not support a re-run. You cannot pick and choose your democratic decisions on the basis of whether you won or lost. But, as a result, we need to make momentous decisions in parliament about the way ahead for Great Britain’s future in the world.

The PM has put his approach to this dilemma in detail, as set out on my blog here:http://guyopperman.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/yesterday-pm-came-to-parliament-and.html

I myself saw the issue of immigration as a key driver of why the campaign to Remain failed in the North East of England. And the PM addressed that on Monday, when he said:

"As I have said, I think that one of the most difficult decisions for a future Government will be how to balance access to the single market—the best we can get—with decisions about immigration. I do not know what exact answer can be found. The answer I found was welfare reform, which was bold and brave because it meant reducing welfare payments to newly arrived migrants. Those changes will now not go ahead, so that extra draw will continue for the next couple of years, but we have to find an answer to that problem. In a way, that is the puzzle we have now been set by the British people, which is, “We want access to the single market and we recognise the economic argument, but you’ve got to do better when it comes to immigration.”  

But the PM has set out his intention to go, so we must look to the future.

I stress that I have not decided who to support, but it is right that I set out my views in outline, along with the issues I will be raising in the next week or so. 

Selection procedure

Candidates must now put their names forward to Conservative MPs and they will be gradually whittled down over the next ten days to just two. The final decision then rests with Conservative Party members to choose a new leader by 9^th September.

 

A strong field of experienced candidates

At this point we do not know who are going to be official candidates, but my understanding is that the following are likely to put their names into the ring when nominations close this Thursday; in alphabetical order:

John Baron, Stephen Crabb, Liam Fox, Jeremy Hunt, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Nicky Morgan. There may yet be others, but not that I am aware of.

All the candidates I know well, some of who I have worked with closely.

At this point I think it is fair to say the main contenders are Theresa May, Stephen Crabb and Boris Johnson. I think it is a very positive reflection on our party that we have such strong candidates.

Theresa May is the longest serving Home Secretary in 100 years. I worked for her as a PPS in the Home Office from 2012-2015. She has done a very tough job as Home Secretary very well. No one works harder, and no one is more dedicated. She is, unquestionably, a serious politician. When I became seriously ill in 2011 she was unbelievably kind to me, and she was a delight to work for, albeit a hard taskmaster. In addition, I worked with her at length as Chairman of Women2Win from 2013-2015, an organisation that Theresa can be proud to have founded.

Dr Sarah Wollaston MP wrote of her support for Theresa here:http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/mp-backs-theresa-may-to-take-over-from-david-cameron/story-29452128-detail/story.html

Stephen Crabb is the recently appointed Secretary of State for Work and Pensions; having arrived into parliament in 2005. Stephen was formerly the Secretary of State for Wales. I have also worked with him, as the DWP whip these last few months. He is clearly very able, and is a thoughtful, intelligent man. He also talks a language, and has a background and empathy, that both really matter right now, and will need to be addressed over the long years ahead.

Maria Caulfield MP wrote a piece in support of Stephen here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/why-my-fellow-brexiteers-should-want-stephen-crabb-as-britains-n

Boris Johnson is the former two-time Mayor of London. He returned to parliament in May 2015. As Mayor, he was a real moderniser and did a good job running one of the most important and complex capital cities in the world. I campaigned with him extensively on support for the Living Wage from 2012-2015, and there is no doubt that our efforts eventually saw a change in government policy.  He clearly has an ability to connect with voters in a way few other politicians can.

Nick Boles MP wrote a piece in support of Boris here: http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/nick-boles-im-a-moderniser-i-backed-remain-and-heres-why-i-believe-johnson-should-be-the-next-conservative-leader.html

 

The big issues ahead

Whoever is our next Prime Minister, they have a number of fundamental challenges to tackle:

• They have to articulate what Brexit looks like?  Crucially, they are going to have to spell out their approach to the single market and future immigration control. Does this mean qualified or full access to the single market? This is the key issue identified by Lord William Hague in his recent article this week: what is the relationship with Europe we are now aiming for?

As William puts it: “It will be difficult to cut any new advantageous deal with the EU, but if we don’t know what we want it will be totally impossible. Are we open to joining the European Economic Area, along with Norway and Iceland, which would mean ditching the commitment to control immigration – or are we putting migration controls first, and taking the economic consequences of that? The time for avoiding this question is over.”

• They are going to have to bring our country together given that the voting majority voted out, but there are 48 per cent who voted remain. 
   
• And finally, notwithstanding the pre-existing Conservative Party manifesto, what are going to be their wider priorities for the country moving forward?

As I said at the beginning, I must stress that I have not decided who I will support, and I will be seeking answers to these questions from all candidates. It will then be for members to decide on who is the right man or woman, to lead the Conservative Party as the next Prime Minister.

William Hague sets out the tests a future PM must address - well worth a read

A new prime minister will need to have a clear plan the day he or she is elected, and a decisive mandate for it from their party. The moment they arrive in the Cabinet Room, foreign leaders, major investors and most of the British people will want to know exactly what they are planning to do. The Conservative conference will be imminent. There will be no time to muddle through. This means each candidate should be expected to set out how he or she will deal with four dimensions of the immense questions facing the United Kingdom.
The first is to answer the question the Leave campaign most conspicuously refused to address: what is the relationship with Europe we are now aiming for? It will be difficult to cut any new advantageous deal with the EU, but if we don’t know what we want it will be totally impossible. Are we open to joining the European Economic Area, along with Norway and Iceland, which would mean ditching the commitment to control immigration – or are we putting migration controls first and taking the economic consequences of that? The time for avoiding this question is over.
The second is the related challenge of giving businesses confidence to invest in the UK, or to think again about relocating their operations abroad. Many of us argued that the disadvantages of leaving would outweigh the advantages, but now the decision is made, the worst of all worlds would be to suffer those disadvantages without exploiting all possible advantages. The candidates need to say how they would use “taking back control” to make Britain a good long-term bet. Show how taxes on enterprise can be cut steadily for a decade, pensions and saving simplified, and EU regulations abandoned where they are too burdensome or counter-productive. With the City in a quandary as to what to do, consider adopting US-style financial regulation instead of the EU model.

Whichever side of the referendum the new PM was on, they need a lot of the people who voted Remain to be excited and inspired by the programme of a government that is now committed to Leave. A serious but radical economic programme should be at the heart of that.

The third dimension is scarcely less vital: having a plan for keeping the United Kingdom together. The immediate tactics of the Scottish nationalists, aimed at exacerbating divisions between London and Edinburgh, were foreshadowed in what I wrote last week. Those who led the Leave campaign showed an inexcusable complacency about the future integrity of the UK itself, ignoring all concerns about Scottish independence, the delicate position of Northern Ireland, and the exposed position of Gibraltar. The new prime minister must be someone who has shown they have a fighting chance of saving a Union that is now in critical danger.

The final dimension is a more partisan requirement, but still vital for all of us who want to see the gains this country has made in recent years safeguarded for the future. The next Tory leader has to be able to keep the Labour Party pushed to the fringes of politics, with a style of Conservatism that combines economic credibility with a modern social liberalism to dominate the centre ground of political debate.
The full article is here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/the-four-questions-every-wannabe-prime-minister-must-answer/

Yesterday the PM came to parliament and answered Questions on the EU Ref result + the way ahead - worth a read

The full debate is here:
https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-06-27/debates/1606275000001/OutcomeOfTheEUReferendum


Some of the key responses by the PM are here:

"Let me set out for the House what this vote means, the steps we are taking immediately to stabilise the UK economy, the preparatory work for the negotiation to leave the EU, our plans for fully engaging the devolved Administrations, and the next steps at tomorrow's European Council.

The British people have voted to leave the European Union. It was not the result that I wanted, or the outcome that I believe is best for the country I love, but there can be no doubt about the result. Of course, I do not take back what I said about the risks. It is going to be difficult. We have already seen that there are going to be adjustments within our economy, complex constitutional issues, and a challenging new negotiation to undertake with Europe. However, I am clear—and the Cabinet agreed this morning—that the decision must be accepted, and the process of implementing the decision in the best possible way must now begin.

At the same time, we have a fundamental responsibility to bring our country together. In the past few days, we have seen despicable graffiti daubed on a Polish community centre, and verbal abuse hurled against individuals because they are members of ethnic minorities. Let us remember that these people have come here and made a wonderful contribution to our country. We will not stand for hate crime or attacks of this kind. They must be stamped out.

We can reassure European citizens living here, and Brits living in European countries, that there will be no immediate changes in their circumstances; nor will there be any initial change in the way our people can travel, the way our goods can move, or the way our services can be sold. The deal we negotiated at the European Council in February will now be discarded and a new negotiation to leave the EU will begin under a new Prime Minister.

Turning to our economy, it is clear that markets are volatile and that some companies are considering their investments; we know that this is going to be far from plain sailing. However, we should take confidence from the fact that Britain is ready to confront what the future holds for us from a position of strength. As a result of our long-term plan, we have today one of the strongest major advanced economies in the world, and we are ​well placed to face the challenges ahead. We have low, stable inflation. The employment rate remains the highest it has ever been. The budget deficit is down from 11% of national income and forecast to be below 3% this year. The financial system is also substantially more resilient than it was six years ago, with capital requirements for the largest banks now 10 times higher than before the banking crisis.

The markets may not have been expecting the referendum result but, as the Chancellor set out this morning, the Treasury, the Bank of England and our other financial authorities have spent the last few months putting in place robust contingency plans. As the Governor of the Bank of England said on Friday, the Bank’s stress tests have shown that UK institutions have enough capital and liquidity reserves to withstand a scenario more severe than the one the country currently faces; and the Bank can make available £250 billion of additional funds if it needs to support banks and markets. In the coming days, the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority will continue to be in very close contact. They have contingency plans in place to maintain financial stability and they will not hesitate to take further measures if required.

Turning to preparations for negotiating our exit from the EU, the Cabinet met this morning and agreed the creation of a new EU unit in Whitehall. This will bring together officials and policy expertise from across the Cabinet Office, the Treasury, the Foreign Office and the Business Department. Clearly this will be most complex and most important task that the British civil service has undertaken in decades, so the new unit will sit at the heart of government and be led and staffed by the best and brightest from across our civil service. It will report to the whole Cabinet on delivering the outcome of the referendum, advising on transitional issues and objectively exploring options for our future relationship with Europe and the rest of the world from outside the EU. It will also be responsible for ensuring that the new Prime Minister has the best possible advice from the moment of their arrival.

I know that colleagues on all sides of the House will want to contribute to how we prepare and execute the new negotiation to leave the EU, and the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, my right hon. Friend the Member for West Dorset (Mr Letwin), will listen to all views and representations and make sure that they are fully put into this exercise. He will be playing no part in the leadership election.

Turning to the devolved Administrations, we must ensure that the interests of all parts of our United Kingdom are protected and advanced, so as we prepare for a new negotiation with the European Union we will fully involve the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland Governments. We will also consult Gibraltar, the Crown dependencies and overseas territories, and all regional centres of power including the London Assembly. I have spoken to the First Ministers of Scotland and Wales, as well as the First and Deputy First Ministers in Northern Ireland and the Taoiseach, and our officials will be working intensively together over the coming weeks to bring our devolved Administrations into the process for determining the decisions that need to be taken. While all the key decisions will have to wait for ​the arrival of the new Prime Minister, there is a lot of work that can be started now. For instance, the British and Irish Governments begin meeting this week to work through the challenges relating to the common border area.

Tomorrow I will attend the European Council. In the last few days I have spoken to Chancellor Merkel, President Hollande and a number of other European leaders. We have discussed the need to prepare for the negotiations and in particular the fact that the British Government will not be triggering article 50 at this stage. Before we do that, we need to determine the kind of relationship we want with the EU, and that is rightly something for the next Prime Minister and their Cabinet to decide. I have also made this point to the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission, and I will make it clear again at the European Council tomorrow. This is our sovereign decision and it will be for Britain, and Britain alone, to take.

Tomorrow will also provide an opportunity to make the point that although Britain is leaving the European Union, we must not turn our back on Europe or on the rest of the world. The nature of the relationship we secure with the EU will be determined by the next Government, but I think everyone is agreed that we will want the strongest possible economic links with our European neighbours, as well as with our close friends in North America and the Commonwealth and with important partners such as India and China. I am also sure that whatever the precise nature of our future relationship, we will want to continue with a great deal of our extensive security co-operation and to do all we can to influence decisions that will affect the prosperity and safety of our people here at home.

This negotiation will require strong, determined, and committed leadership. As I have said, I think the country requires a new Prime Minister and Cabinet to take it in this direction. This is not a decision I have taken lightly, but I am absolutely convinced that it is in the national interest. Although leaving the EU was not the path I recommended, I am the first to praise our incredible strengths as a country. As we proceed with implementing this decision and facing the challenges that it will undoubtedly bring, I believe we should hold fast to a vision of Britain that wants to be respected abroad, tolerant at home, engaged in the world and working with our international partners to advance the prosperity and security of our nation for generations to come. I have fought for these things every day of my political life and I will always do so.

He later added:

"As I have said, I think that one of the most difficult decisions for a future Government will be how to balance access to the single market—the best we can get—with decisions about immigration. I do not know what exact answer can be found. The answer I found was welfare reform, which was bold and brave because it meant reducing welfare payments to newly arrived migrants. Those changes will now not go ahead, so that extra draw will continue for the next couple of years, but we have to find an answer to that problem. In a way, that is the puzzle we have now been set by the British people, which is, “We want access to the single market and we recognise the economic argument, but you’ve got to do better when it comes to immigration.”

We get the best of both worlds by Remaining in the EU. The economic consequences of leaving are huge - don't risk it

William Hague makes the economic case for Remain - I think my Hexham constituents are better off Remaining in the EU

"Playing with the jobs of millions of people is not a game. If we leave the European single market to which we export tens of thousands of cars, huge quantities of chemicals and pharmaceuticals, the wings of Airbus planes and a myriad of financial services, without the foggiest idea what comes in its place, the problems caused will become worse every day and they won’t wear off with a stiff drink.
When they have discussed it in the past, some Leave campaigners have suggested that we could somehow stay in the single market but not have freedom of movement of people. This is beyond ridiculous: the rest of the EU is never going to give us a better arrangement than they have themselves. Others have said we could be like Norway and be in the European Economic Area, but Norwegians have to pay into the EU and accept higher immigration than we do while having no say over any of the rules.
Yet others have said we would be like Albania, but that country has an agreement based on ultimately joining the EU and the euro. Or like Canada, it has been said, before realising that the deal between the EU and Canada has already taken seven years to negotiate, still isn’t ratified and wouldn’t cover most of our economy. Well, then, we would just rely on the World Trade Organisation rules, like America and China, was, I think, the last option put forward by Leave campaigners.
Anyone with a job really needs to know what that means. It means a tariff of 10 per cent can be added to every car we make, or 20 per cent on our huge exports of whisky, or 36 per cent on a dairy product. British businesses would face all those extra costs, and yet if they still wanted to export to the rest of Europe they would have to comply with all the EU rules on their products, getting the worst of all worlds – the regulation on top of extra taxes, as well as customs to clear. "
The full article is here
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

Constituents want certainties about the EU debate - the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies provide this

Paul Johnson (IFS director and an author of the report published yesterday) said: ‘Leaving the EU would most likely increase borrowing by between £20 and £40 billion in 2019–20. Getting to budget balance from there, as the government desires, would require an additional year or two of austerity at current rates of spending cuts. Or we could live with higher borrowing and debt’ (IFS Press Release, 25 May 2016, link).

The IFS also pour further scorn on the Leave campaign’s claims about the cost of EU membership: ‘Claims that we would have an additional £350 million a week to spend are wrong. They imply that following a UK exit other EU countries would continue to pay a rebate to the UK on contributions it was not making. Such claims also imply we would simply stop all existing EU subsidies to farming and poorer regions (such as Northumberland, Cornwall and west Wales) (IFS Press Release, 25 May 2016, link).

Paul Johnson also told Today: ‘You cannot get a better trading relationship with the European Union than the one we already have. It is as free as it is possible to have between one country and another set of countries...at the moment nearly half, 44 per cent of our exports go into the European Union and whatever deal we came out with would be worse than the deal that we have at the moment’ (Today, BBC Radio Four, 25 May 2016).

Brilliant article by William Hague on Trump+ the implausibility of Brexit

"Donald Trump does not have the encumbrance of policies, with details attached, costs identified and implications analysed. He only has general statements, which he modifies or abandons as necessary: a recipe for an easy campaign and a catastrophic government. Similarly, the Leave campaign does not have an agreed alternative to put into action following a victory on June 23; the consequences will somehow be sorted out later. Any plan has been quickly abandoned when criticised: first we were going to be like Canada, then like Albania. Now we are just going to have “access to the single market”, which means: be like all the countries whose goods have to clear EU customs, have EU tariffs added to them, and are subjected to EU standards, without having any influence over what they might be. The Leave campaign is really the Trump campaign with better hair."
The full article so you an make your own judgement is here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/the-leave-campaign-is-really-the-donald-trump-campaign-with-bett/

Prime Minister sets out the case for Remain in the Mirror newspaper

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-writes-mirror-dont-7978638

Future EU debates in Tynedale - Bardon Mill Wednesday + Hexham 4/16 June

The big debate will be Thursday June 16, 7.30 in Hexham Abbey. But we also have a debate run by Hexham Debates on Saturday June 4 at 2.30, and a Q+ A this Wednesday with the former MEP, Fiona Hall, in Bradon Mill Village Hall at 7. Please come along.
My thoughts are here: http://guyopperman.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/read-thought-and-listened-lot-over-last.html

James Wharton wins Private Members Bill Ballot - as immortalised in Bob's cartoon

The North East should decide on it's relationship with Europe. I am backing James's plans for a law to legislate for an  EU Referendum. Europe has changed immensely over the last few decades. Our relationship with Europe needs to change as well. Put simply, the European Union is a very different beast from what people voted for in 1975. Like many people across the region I never have had that vote. I want to see powers brought back to Britain, with greater control over our own affairs. I do not want the Euro, or for us to be part of some kind of European superstate, run from Brussels.
I hope the Labour MP's in the region will back my Conservative colleague, James Wharton, the MP for Stockton South, whose Private Members Bill will put the proposal for an EU Referendum into law.

The Prime minister has made it very clear that he wants the British people to decide our European future with an in/out referendum. We, as Conservatives, are now trying to turn this commitment into law. That
law can only be put in place if Labour MP's in our region back this bill. I urge them to ignore Ed Milliband and back our plans to give the region its say on our future with Europe.