Make your own mind up - but do read the report: shock or severe shock? The Treasury analysis of the short term impact of Brexit is here

The Treasury’s analysis of the short-term impact of Brexit offers us two scenarios for the two years following the referendum: a base ‘shock’ and a ‘severe shock’ scenario. The base case means 3.6pc less economic growth in the two years following Brexit, with inflation up 2.3 percentage points and house prices down 10pc.
The full report is here:
https://www.scribd.com/doc/313564363/HM-Treasury-Analysis-The-Immediate-Economic-Impact-of-Leaving-the-EUhttps://www.scribd.com/doc/313564363/HM-Treasury-Analysis-The-Immediate-Economic-Impact-of-Leaving-the-EU

The Weekend read: Sir John Major speech on the issue of the EU - it is a brilliant speech and overwhelming in its argument

On a multitude of levels the former PM makes a strong case for the remain campaign. I urge all constituents to read it before making their decision
http://www.johnmajor.co.uk/speechhongkong.pdf

Future EU debates in Hexham - June 16 + June 4

In the months of May and June I have a variety of debates across the wider North East, both with specific business groups, and general debates in Tynedale.
The precise details of the local Hexham debates are as follows:
- June 16 at Hexham Abbey, at 7.30
- June 4 at Hexham QEHS, at 2
I am definitely speaking at the former, and am trying to free myself up to speak at the latter.
My thoughts and approach on the EU are set out here: https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5077636819382533422#editor/target=post;postID=7109660053298986926;onPublishedMenu=posts;onClosedMenu=posts;postNum=67;src=postname

Oh to be in Scotland at the Eddie Izzard "Scotland Please don't go" gig

Tonight Eddie Izzard has gone north to make the case to Scots that we are Better Together. I have seen the great man many times and I am gutted I cannot be there. But Izzard is going to give those in the rest of the UK a voice in the independence referendum even though they don’t have a vote, and offer them an "opportunity to play their part in keeping our family of nations together"
For more details see here, but this is great news:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jennyhjul/100266366/eddie-izzard-is-campaigning-for-a-no-vote-but-many-scottish-public-figures-are-too-scared-to-defend-the-union/

Predictions for 2014

Locally I want to help be part of the team that creates a local community bank in Tynedale, building on the base of the credit union, but expanding its numbers, size and scope so that we have a real local bank to take on the big banks.

Two big elections occur: Scottish Referendum and European Elections
My view remains that we are Better Together and that the Scottish people will agree. I will be campaigning there on several occasions in 2014.
As to the Euro elections I will be fighting hard for us to have a strong voice in Europe, and Martin Callanan is that person.

Syria I fear will be an ongoing civil war, but I hope to get a better understanding of the situation if I get the chance to visit, or meet with certain key players. I will blog much more on this as there are options ahead.

Iran remains, however, the key to improvement in global peace. If the nuclear reprogramming continues then we will all be able to both breathe a sigh of relief, and continue to reduce the wider impact and extent of Middle East conflict. I have not been on a work trip to the region in 2013 - regular readers will know I travel to the region every year. In previous years I have taken myself to Beirut, Israel, Jordan and Turkey.

Sport: as a former jockey and racing journalist I always like each bets: my long term each way tip for the national is Monbeg Dude, owned by Mike Tindall and some rugby mates. Last years third Teaforthree will also run well.
I fancy Rose for the Masters and Woods for the Open, and Europe for the Ryder Cup. Murray to win Wimbledon again would be too amazing, but we have to dream!