Scottish, Welsh, local, PCC + Mayoral elections are the key focus till May 5

In less than 2 months we will have 5 sets of key elections that will determine the direction of travel for our United Kingdom, and none of these involve the EU.

I am a committed unionist and will continue to campaign for Ruth Davidson and her band of Scottish brothers and sisters in the Scottish Conservatives, who are providing a unionist, fiscally strong, socially liberal alternative to the SNP, and the ever more leftwards lean of the Scottish Labour Party. I have already been once these last few months to help John Lamont, MSP, my neighbouring conservative over the border at Carter Bar, and will go again with supporters before May.
http://www.johnlamont.org/


Anyone who was at our rally last Saturday to hear Ruth speak will understand why we support Ruth and her team so much:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11570216/Who-is-Ruth-Davidson-the-leader-of-the-Scottish-Conservatives.html

Later this month of March I will give 24 hours of time and support to some of the key Welsh Conservative candidates like Andrew Atkinson, who is contesting the key Welsh Assembly seat of Wrexham. http://www.wrexhamconservatives.org.uk/news

I have a good friend in the Commons in Zac Goldsmith, and was one of those who say him down and encouraged him to run for Mayor. The fate of London is key to the economic and general outcome for this country and I am certain that Jeremy Corbyn's mate, Sadiq Khan, is not the answer for London. I will be giving more time to campaign for Zac in the coming months, when I am down in Westminster, whether that is by telephone canvassing, morning leafleting at tube stations or physical door knocking when time allows.

Closer to home we have the Northumbria Police and Crime Commissioner elections and in former policeman, Stewart Hay, locals in my Hexham constituency have a great choice.
http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/crime/ex-cop-hopes-to-become-police-commissioner-1-4621136

And finally we are in Northumberland are playing our part in helping support the hard work of the Newcastle Conservatives who are trying to provide a sensible, robust alternative to the Labour dominance of Newcastle.
http://www.gosforthmatters.org.uk/person/steve-kyte

Our country does face a Euro referendum in June, but for this Conservative MP that referendum comes second to the need to help strong Conservative candidates get elected in May. My advice to all activists is what all steeplechase jockeys are taught - jump the fence in front of you - not the ones further down the track. There will be time enough for the Euro campaign after May 5. My job till May is to get Conservatives elected.  

65 days until key elections in Scotland, Wales, PCC and local authorities - who wins, who loses?

In 65 days we will know how well the electorate think the various parties are doing around the country. Primarily all eyes are on Labour. Put simply will Corbynista politics be popular to the voters in Scotland, Wales, PCC elections and for the metropolitan authorities? I find the Scottish election most interesting, not least as the Scots are our neighbours over the border at Carter Bar.
At present Corbyn's labour are struggling for even second place in Scotland. We see at Westminster the two opposition parties trying to be even more left wing than each other, and I believe that Ruth Davidson MSP is beginning to convince people in Scotland that you can be fiscally conservative but socially liberal, with a consequential impact on voting intention; given the SNP strong left wing approach, albeit with very poor outcomes in education, policing and all devolved public services, why would you vote for a alternative left wing party, like labour? That is Corbyn's problem, and that is why labour is struggling.
I am going to help by spending a day or two in Scotland and Wales over the next months campaigning and helping our conservative candidates, not least to get a better understanding of what the local electorates are thinking.
Ruth Davidson is our inspirational leader in Scotland: her recent article is here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/12163811/We-need-to-challenge-the-SNPs-increasingly-arrogant-rule-in-Scotland.html

Scottish elections next May are the make or break for far left Labour leadership

Most Labour MPs in the Commons see next May as the crucial test for Jeremy Corbyn's new look far left Labour Party. If Labour wins in Scotland with its far left approach then Corbyn buys himself some time, and evidence can be found that this is both what he believes, and what part of the country believes. Put simply, his approach is that we are going to give far left socialism one more big heave.
So the Scottish Labour Party conference yesterday in Perth was worth a good look.
The report does not make good reading: http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/jeremy-corbyn-comes-to-scotland-and-discovers-he-has-nothing-to-say/
This passage particularly resonates in the report:

"Labour are trapped. They cannot Out-Nat the Nats and they cannot Out-Unionist the Tories. So what can they do? Where does Labour find its voice? And if it can find its voice what will it actually say?

One thing was made clear in Perth today: Jeremy Corbyn is not the answer. But then you knew that already. His speech was, er, remarkable. It was a speech aimed at – and let’s be generous here – 15 percent of voters. Those voters who think a Spartist shouting “SOCIALISM” is the winning response to a Natjob crying “FREEDOM”.

Or, as Corbyn put it, according to the version of his speech distributed to journalists this afternoon, “Friends, if you want socialist change, if you want a left wing alternative, you have to vote for it.”

Just how good are the SNP at running Scotland? On education, policing, health - not well

Not good is the answer. Look at public services across the board and assess the relative merits of the English and Scottish systems. The journalist Fraser Nelson has done a brilliant job evaluating the actuality of SNP rule in Scotland:
"The SNP has governed public services in Scotland since 2007, so it is easy to test its central theory: that “home rule” is better rule. If this were true, we would see Scottish students pulling ahead of English ones; hospital waiting times crashing down and exciting and innovative methods of policing. Instead, a very different picture presents itself for those with an eye to see it.
The steady exam improvement in England has seen no equivalent in Scotland, which is now the worst place in Britain to be poor and bright. Next month, almost one in five English students from poor backgrounds will go to university – twice the level of poor Scots. Lucy Hunter Blackburn, a former civil servant who crunched the numbers in an Edinburgh University study, puts it starkly. The SNP’s abolition of tuition fees helps rich families, she says, she says, and grants for poor students are lower. So the SNP “is actively reinforcing inherited inequalities in wealth. It’s that simple.”
The SNP’s great policing experiment – merging eight constabularies into one nationwide force – has also become a case study in what not to do. The promised cost savings have not materialised, the huge force struggles with basic communication and is under fire for bungled responses to emergencies. In July, a man was found dead inside his car on near Bannockburn three days after the crash was first reported. His girlfriend was found alive, but unconscious next to him. She later died. Sir Stephen House, chief constable of the two-year-old Police Scotland, recently announced his resignation. If Theresa May’s flagship police reform had gone so badly, she would be an ex-Home Secretary. But things are different in Scotland. The SNP is adept at changing the topic of conversation to one it prefers and dodging the scrutiny it deserves. It likes to hold debate over issues where it has no authority. On Tuesday, for example, MSPs discussed the refugee crisis and parliament voted to “recognise the severity” of the situation as if this would do any good. About £1 billion of British money is being spent helping Syrians by the UK overseas aid department, which has hundreds of staff in East Kilbride. If the SNP wants an example of Scots making a difference to those most in need, it need look no further.
So there is a scrutiny gap, which Mr Cameron’s government can help fill. As Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, it ought to concern him that educational opportunity is being denied to bright Scottish teenagers simply because they lack the money. But there is good news too. Poverty in Scotland is falling, contrary to the SNP’s predictions. It is also one of the very few countries in Europe to enjoy record employment; who would argue that this is unconnected to its being part of the UK and its jobs miracle? Mr Cameron could trumpet these successes."
The full article is here:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11873099/Cameron-must-wake-up-the-battle-for-Scotland-and-the-Union-is-still-being-fought.html

One year on the SNP seek what they said they would not - a "Neverendum"

The SNP must stop issuing threats that a second independence referendum could be triggered by policy decisions made at Westminster.

The SNP has hinted that disagreements with the UK Government over defence policy, economic approach and the Scotland Bill would be enough to force people to vote on independence again.
Nicola Sturgeon even said the inability of new Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to become Prime Minister would be a sufficient change in circumstances.
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said:
“Nicola Sturgeon has to realise that last year the people of Scotland were promised that the referendum was a once-in-a-generation event. But just this week we’ve been told that triggers could include a defence policy she doesn’t like, an economic plan she’s opposed to, a devolution settlement she disagrees with, or even a new Labour leader she doesn’t think can win.
In short, the trigger for another referendum for this Scottish Government is any day that ends in a ‘Y’. The fact is the SNP is just scratching around trying to find any excuse to get the referendum rematch it so desperately wants.”


The SNP in my view do not equal Scotland. They equal a single political party, with a significant public support. There are a wealth of views different to the SNP in Scotland, and the majority of  Scots support the Union.


This from the PM at Prime Ministers Questions this Wednesday in a lively exchange with the SNP:
"We said that we would introduce a Scotland Bill, and we introduced a Scotland Bill. We said that there would be unprecedented devolution on taxes, and there has been unprecedented devolution on taxes. We said that we would provide those welfare powers, and we have given those welfare powers. The question now for the SNP is this: when are you going to stop talking about processes and start telling us what taxes you are going to put up? What welfare changes are you going to make? Or, when it comes to talking about the issues, are you frit?"

Edinburgh agreement precludes another Scottish referendum for a generation

Last year we had an independence referendum that was legal, fair and decisive – and the people of Scotland voted decisively to keep our family of nations together and remain part of the United Kingdom.

Both Governments then signed the Edinburgh Agreement, which committed them to respect the outcome of the referendum. The Scottish Government's own White Paper made it clear that the referendum was a once in a generation event, and that commitment was repeated by Yes campaigners including the First Minister herself.

With serious concerns about the performance of Police Scotland, access to GPs and the attainment gap in Scottish schools, the SNP now needs to stop agitating for a second referendum and start saying what they plan to do with the powers they’ve got and the substantial powers which are on the way through the Scotland Bill, to improve the lives of the Scottish people.

The rural Northumberland tour starts today by Scottish border in Byrness then Kirkwhelpington

ISOS are holding a series of events in East Hexham this morning and I am going along but thereafter I am on the road, travelling to the Scottish Border and working back southwards. I have rural surgeries in byrness and will be knocking on doors there, followed by a series of meetings in the village of Kirkwhelpington. Much looking forward to it.

The Commons is debating the Scotland Bill / Smith Commission today from 3.30-10.30pm

The bill will be heard for the first time in debate from 3.30-10pm, with votes to follow, and follows the recommendations of the Smith Commission, which was set up after the independence referendum. It gives Holyrood control over income tax rates and bands, a half share in VAT revenues and a greater say over welfare powers in Scotland.
The BBC advance report on todays bill is here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33041979

Labour and the SNP = a destructive Coalition

Sir John  Major is right to warn of the consequences of such an unholy union in yesterdays papers:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11452938/John-Major-It-is-shameful-that-Labour-hasnt-ruled-out-a-pact-with-the-SNP.html


For my part I think it would ensure the demise of the Union for sure. I was talking to Jim Murphy in Westminster on Wednesday and he assures me that the SNP will fade once it comes under scrutiny; but I will be going north to campaign in Scotland shortly both for the 2 Conservative candidates in the border region, and the Union generally.

Scottish Politics just got way more bizarre - Scots Labour to try and tax English voters more to pay for more Scottish nurses

The policy is bizarre: Jim Murphy, who is normally a sensible Labour politician has announced that
- Scottish labour will recruit 1,000 extra nurses above whatever number were recruited by the SNP.

This bidding war equates to this: regardless of existing staffing levels, regardless of existing clinical priorities, regardless of other devolved departmental priorities, Labour will spend the money just to get one over on the SNP. 

And bear in mind that Health is devolved in Scotland so Holyrood not Westminster decide staffing levels etc.
But how this does affect us in England is the Labour Party as a whole's approach to England, to taxation, and the distribution of wealth that this country earns?

1. Because Scottish Labour is in such a fight with the SNP Jim Murphy can say anything to win votes in Scotland, even if that means upsetting normal voters of any political persuasion in England. The madness of his policy was exposed today when English Labour MPs queued up to attack him - see for example Dianne Abbott MP calling it an expropriation, and describing her own colleague as "unscrupulous". It is a fair point to say that the famous Mansion Tax is being spent many times over by Labour.
   
2. It also says a lot on Labour spending as the nurses proposed are a figure even if not needed - so if the SNP proposed 1 million nurses, Jim Murphy says Labour will have 1 million and a thousand. Sadly this is a fair consideration when spending and restraint in these troubled times are being considered.  

3. Even with the Barnett Formula and devolved funding, the Scottish Labour Party now want even greater tax on England to pay for Scotland. It is little surprise that they are opposed to English Votes for English Issues - because they would use Scottish MPs to force through a pro Scotland law on healthcare, even though healthcare is devolved. Bizarre.

4. This can only add fuel to the argument that I and others in the House of Commons have been making, that we will only get a fairer settlement for the North East if we stop Scottish MPs - whether they be SNP, Labour or any other parties voting on devolved matters to England's disadvantage
http://www.thejournal.co.uk/north-east-analysis/analysis-news/government-must-press-english-votes-8300027

Ed Miliband is not happy with Jim Murphy today. But then he’s never been happy with Jim Murphy. The irony, of course, is that Miliband will have to be saved in Scotland by a man he demoted and sidelined. But that’s politics for you.
More details on the story here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11327310/Labour-has-just-told-London-and-the-South-East-to-drop-dead.html

I am Question 1 at Scottish Questions today at 11.30 in the Commons

If the Secretary of State will give guidance to the Smith Commission on ensuring that its proposals do not hamper cross border trade with the North of England.

Scottish Politics is at a crossroads - with change all around ..interesting times

My constituency borders Scotland and I have spent a great deal of the last 18 months in Scotland campaigning for the Union, against the SNP and helping the Scottish Conservative Party find its voice again in places as far afield as Aberdeen, Argyll, Fife and the Borders. What happens in Scotland affects us in Northumberland...and its politics is very interesting.

At the same time, since September 18 Labour support is declining. SNP lost the Referendum and yet the polls show they are doing well; the Scottish Conservatives are in second place and see support growing, with Ruth Davidson energised and the lone voice of fiscal responsibility; and, with a General Election less than 200 days away, the Scottish labour Party is considering who to choose to be their next leader. At present Jim Murphy is a Westminster MP, albeit everyone is clamouring for him to return to Scottish Politics and confront the SNP.

The Spectator has a great assessment of the situation:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/scotland-needs-jim-murphy-even-if-he-doesnt-want-to-go-back-there/

The most interesting thing for me is consideration of Jim Murphy's present role: he was the manager of David Miliband’s leadership campaign and Murphy has paid the price. He was the best Shadow Minister during his time as shadow defence secretary. His demotion was to shadow international development; for my part I do not regard that as a job worth giving up if he truly believed Labour could win the General Election. Putting it bluntly, if Labour were to win the election I would want good men and women in the Cabinet. Losing Murphy to Scotland would energise Scottish labour [as I am sure he would win the leadership] and help halt the march of the SNP, but the UK will miss the David Miliband / Jim Murphy types if Labour were to win the UK General Election. This country needs intelligent centre left Labour Party politicians, and they are becoming ever fewer on the ground. Like I said, interesting times.

Ouch! Scots Labour in meltdown and now Tony Blair says Ed is too left wing to win election

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11187285/Tony-Blair-Miliband-has-failed-to-connect-with-voters-and-is-doomed-to-election-defeat.html

In his last public comments about British politics in July, Blair warned Ed Miliband about retreating into a left-wing “comfort zone” and said the party has not yet developed a “narrative that is about the future of the country.” Even John Prescott, Mr Blair’s former deputy, has said Mr Miliband is pursuing a “core vote strategy” of appealing only to traditional Labour supporters.

All this on the day after Johann Lamont steps down as Scots Labour leader, 5 days after saying she was not going to quit - and blames Westminster politicians for meddling and scheming against her.

Good to see the Party Leaders making the case to the Scots that they are wanted

David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband are combining forces and heading to Scotland tomorrow to make the case for the UK. They have cancelled PMQs. Here’s their joint statement:

‘There is a lot that divides us – but there’s one thing on which we agree passionately: the United Kingdom is better together.

That’s why all of us are agreed the right place for us to be tomorrow is in Scotland, not at Prime Minister’s Questions in Westminster.

We want to be listening and talking to voters about the huge choice they face.

Our message to the Scottish people will be simple: “We want you to stay.”

The evidence from Canada's referendum 20 years ago when Quebec thought about leaving is that the rest of the country needs to be passionately making the case to the undecided nation that they want them to stay. I will be doing this myself in the days leading up to the Referendum next week. 

Is an independent Scotland entitled to keep the Pound as is?

If Salmond wants independence then he can have it – provided the Scottish people agree. But with independence comes a different type of currency. It is that simple. We debated this at length in the House of Commons – see the debate here: http://www.theyworkforyou.com/whall/?id=2014-02-12a.292.1&s=%28scottish+currency%29+speaker%3A24962#g302.2

The key section of the debate is as follows:
- "On what basis would Scotland get to keep the pound? Would it be used informally, just as some Latin American countries, Greece and Montenegro use other currencies?
- Why should the Bank of England take notice of Scotland in setting monetary policy?
- Why should the Governor travel to Edinburgh and be interrogated by Scottish MPs in such an event?
- After independence, surely the Governor would owe his appointment entirely to a rest-of-UK appointment system?
- At that stage, would the First Minister come to London seeking an audience to negotiate?
- when one goes through Mark Carney’s speech and looks at the currency options, it would seem that the SNP proposes to keep the pound as part of a formal sterling currency union agreed with the rest of the UK. However, the SNP seems not to have contemplated the fact that that would involve giving up huge amounts, as Mark Carney made very clear, as well as requiring the agreement of all other parties. The SNP seeks independence but would require and accept greater control by a third party."
Many more details on the debate in parliament at the link above.

Question Time this evening is politician free - all about Scottish Independence

At 22:35 tonight BBC is bringing ‘Question Time’ from Inverness, featuring a panel with no politicians – instead there will be campaigners from both sides of the Scottish independence debate

Trying to show the Scots we want them to stay - more action by Better Together on the border

Anne Marie Trevelyan, the Conservative candidate for Berwick on Tweed, and Rory Stewart, MP for Penrith and the Borders, are both passionate Unionists and are both doing what they can to make the Scots stay.
On Saturday July 19th Anne Marie is leading the Border Union Rally along the Scottish Border from Carter Bar to Kirk Yetholm: Full details of what will be an amazing day out and a great hike here:
 http://www.borderunionrally.com/

Similarly my colleague in the House of Commons, Rory Stewart MP is behind the project to create a Cairn on the border at Gretna, starting on Sunday July 20: as he writes:

"Right on the border, in a field at Gretna, we are inviting families from Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland to bring stones and build a great cairn. Stone cairns have been built in Northern England and Scotland for millennia, to celebrate a sense of shared space. Together we hope to construct a striking and lasting testimony to the Union.
We will begin the project on Sunday July 20th and continue every day thereafter, for the following eight weeks and hopefully beyond. We would always love to hear from anyone who is coming, but we also want people to feel they can just turn up and make their mark."
For my part I will be campaigning in Scotland repeatedly between now and September 18.
I urge locals to get behind both projects. The simple question is this: what are you doing to save the Union?

Better Together embraces all parties to keep Scotland as part of the UK

This photo was taken as part of the latest campaigning trip to Aberdeenshire, Fife and Perthshire: it was taken by a key Labour activist, and features councillors from several different parties, and myself - as we came together to make the case for the Union. I was in the village of Dunning and we canvassed all the village finding 80% in favour of the Union. What was noticeable was the cross party goodwill on a very important subject. If you want the ultimate embrace of alternative parties then look no further than the impassioned and eloquent plea of George Galloway MP at the recent Spectator dinner: extracts from  the speech I set out below:

  

‘We are people together on a small piece of rock with three hundred years of common history, and that’s what they want to break up. This is the first time ever that people in a small country, where everyone speaks the same language are being asked to break up, and break up on the basis that they don’t have a currency to use. There will be no pound.’

‘The difference is we have come together temporarily at a moment of national peril. The nationalists on the other hand are permanently together for they have only one purpose, to persuade you that Brian Souter, the gay-baiting billionaire, funder of their campaign, is someone more worthy of looking up to than J.K.Rowling.

“I am tired of being called a quisling, or a traitor…I’ll go wherever I like in these islands or anywhere else and speak my mind. There’ll be havoc if you vote yes in September, havoc in Edinburgh and throughout the land, and you’ll break the hearts of many others too. Who wants to mortgage their, and their children’s future on a finite resource that will soon be finished and the price of which is simply incalculable?’

‘They want you to re-fight a battle seven hundred years ago between two French speaking Kings with Scottish people on both sides. I prefer to remember a rather more recent battle…If we had not stood, but capitulated, like others had done before us, we’d be having this meeting this evening in German, if we were going to have it at all.’

Bless JK Rowling - she believes we are Better Together!

Author JK Rowling has made a £1m donation to help fund the campaign against Scottish independence.

The writer of the Harry Potter books, who lives in Edinburgh, has publicly backed the Better Together campaign.
Explaining her decision on her website, Ms Rowling said there was a "denial of risks" within the "Yes" campaign.

She also said there was a "fringe of nationalists who like to demonise anyone who is not blindly and unquestionably pro-independence".
She added: "My hesitance at embracing independence has nothing to do with lack of belief in Scotland's remarkable people or its achievements. The simple truth is that Scotland is subject to the same 21st century pressures as the rest of the world. It must compete in the same global markets, defend itself from the same threats and navigate what still feels like a fragile economic recovery."

"The more I listen to the 'Yes' campaign, the more I worry about its minimisation and even denial of risks. Whenever the big issues are raised - our heavy reliance on oil revenue if we become independent, what currency we'll use, whether we'll get back into the EU - reasonable questions are drowned out by accusations of 'scaremongering'".

Full story: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27793967

Better Together - dozens of Scots I spoke to last week agree but only 100 days to go

Both sides in the Scottish independence debate are marking the milestone of 100 days to go until the referendum. It is increasingly clear that Salmond and the nationalists are running out of time. The voters I met last week agreed we are better together - about which I will blog in detail over the next few days. 

The referendum will be held on 18 September, with voters asked the Yes/No question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Opinion polls show a decent majority favour the Better Together pro union campaign but we still have many people still to make up their minds either way. Last week it was clear that neither America nor Europe want Scotland to go independent. More details here: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomgallagher/100275242/why-europe-and-america-dont-want-an-independent-scotland-run-by-shape-shifting-alex-salmond/