There are 3 key areas for resolution or decisions by the UK and the west in general. These are:
1.Addressing the Migrant crisis
2. Middle East foreign policy and opposition to ISIL
3. Finding a resolution to the Syrian civil war
- on the migrant crisis on Wednesday of last week the EU leaders met and set out the following deal to try and address the biggest movement of people that mainland Europe has seen for a very long time. This in a context where the Schengen and Dublin agreements on refugees, and where they should claim asylum are fragmenting, and the goodwill of some countries like Hungary, Greece and Croatia is being stretched to the limit and beyond:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34344346
I have already blogged at length on my travels to the region and visits to the refugee camps on the Syria Turkish border: http://guyopperman.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/the-weekend-read-syria-and-difference.html
And my approach to the migrant crisis and the specific way in which local people can help here in Northumberland.
http://guyopperman.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/syrian-refugees-here-is-how-you-can.html
But what is going to be our foreign policy, if any, on the Middle East / opposing ISIL?
4 years ago when the ‘Arab Spring’ was beginning there was great hope for democracy and the future for the Middle East.
At that time there were relatively peaceful revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt’s dictator had just fallen and the first protests were beginning in Syria. But, since then almost no Arab country has yet produced a settled and lasting democracy. At the same time ISIL has taken the fight to all things local, western and christian. We already are involved via the RAF outside of Syria as we support the fight against ISIL. We do not have any part in the sorties in Syria that other nations like the USA and France are flying. Some people are calling for positve action against ISIL, given their approach to christians and their disregard for boundaries and any rules of war: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11846683/Britain-should-help-crush-Isil-in-Syria-former-Archbishop-of-Canterbury-warns.html
The harsh reality is that ISIL are coming for us in the UK whether we like it or not, and are an organisation commited solely to destruction. There is no negotiating to be done here, and where the PM has had to act he has done so: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11848600/David-Cameron-Britain-mounted-fatal-air-strike-in-Syria-live.html
I have no doubt that at some stage parliament is going to have to debate and decide what it is going to do, in conjuction with international partners.
The possibility of resolution of the civil war in Syria and any safe havens in Syria:
The map of Syria is now a patchwork quilt of competing interests and organisations, one of which is ISIL.
As to safe havens and humanitarian corridors I have raised this in parliament as long ago as 2014, after I journeyed back from the Syria / Turkey border. I held a specific debate in parliament on the plight of Syrian Refugees and UN Resolution 2139 relating to the provision of aid in Syria itself, and the reluctance of the UN to do more, and the need for greater support in country:
www.theyworkforyou.com/whall/?id=2014-04-29b.237.0
Aside from being the right thing to do, this policy has the added benefit of stabilising the country, stemming the flow of migrants that is both overwhelming Europe, and denying the home country of their brightest, fittest and best, who will be needed to rebuild their country after the war is over; and this was argued for by Boris in detail in the Telegraph last week:
As to safe havens and humanitarian corridors I have raised this in parliament as long ago as 2014, after I journeyed back from the Syria / Turkey border. I held a specific debate in parliament on the plight of Syrian Refugees and UN Resolution 2139 relating to the provision of aid in Syria itself, and the reluctance of the UN to do more, and the need for greater support in country:
www.theyworkforyou.com/whall/?id=2014-04-29b.237.0
Aside from being the right thing to do, this policy has the added benefit of stabilising the country, stemming the flow of migrants that is both overwhelming Europe, and denying the home country of their brightest, fittest and best, who will be needed to rebuild their country after the war is over; and this was argued for by Boris in detail in the Telegraph last week:
The essence of his argument is as follows:
"We have tried inaction. We have tried inertia and passivity. It isn’t going well. In the absence of any better ideas, and in the hope of protecting the innocent civilians of Syria, we should at least now try the safe havens. You create an area of Syria that is safe from both sides of this horrific civil war: an enclave where kids can go to school, and where people can go about peaceful economic activity. You use overwhelming military force to protect the zone – funded and administered through the UN – and you ensure that it cannot be overflown by Assad or anyone else. The beauty of the proposal is that it gives displaced Syrians a place of refuge that is not some miserable foreign camp, but part of their own country; a place they can stay, and work, until peace eventually returns.
Two such zones have been identified, one in the north, near the border with Turkey, and one in the south, nearer Jordan. The difficulties, needless to say, are immense. First, you have to create such zones – and that cannot be done by air power alone. You need to invest each area with ground troops, and then you need to hold that ground;"
However, there are two big buts to this approach - however laudable: Russia, and the need for boots on the ground, and great cost in men, money and a lot more.
This weekend the Russian President Putin has decided to fortify the region and continue his support for Assad thereby making such a policy very difficult, and potentially a trigger for an even wider conflict. How we enforce a humanitarian corridor / safe haven will now be linked to a resolution and a deal on the partition of Syria I suspect.
But in the short term we will need to make as decision as to whether we take the fight to Isis.
The defence secretary has set out the position previously here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33358267
This blog is a deliberate attempt to set out the options for my constituents and invite comment. What I am clear upon is that the do nothing option is no longer available to us, as events are coming our way whether we like it or not. Isis is attempting to take the UK on and the migrant crisis is partially as a result of a failure to provide a safe haven and resolution in Syria and beyond.
However, there are two big buts to this approach - however laudable: Russia, and the need for boots on the ground, and great cost in men, money and a lot more.
This weekend the Russian President Putin has decided to fortify the region and continue his support for Assad thereby making such a policy very difficult, and potentially a trigger for an even wider conflict. How we enforce a humanitarian corridor / safe haven will now be linked to a resolution and a deal on the partition of Syria I suspect.
But in the short term we will need to make as decision as to whether we take the fight to Isis.
The defence secretary has set out the position previously here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33358267
This blog is a deliberate attempt to set out the options for my constituents and invite comment. What I am clear upon is that the do nothing option is no longer available to us, as events are coming our way whether we like it or not. Isis is attempting to take the UK on and the migrant crisis is partially as a result of a failure to provide a safe haven and resolution in Syria and beyond.