The latest European Union economic forecasts for the EU estimates that unemployment will be
- above 12% in Italy,
- above 11% in France,
- above 25% in Spain and
- above 17% in Portugal for the three years 2013-15.
The average rate in Euroland will be around 12%. Only Germany, has a rate near 5%.
Outside the Euro the UK, Denmark and Sweden are forecast to have unemployment below 8% for the same time period. This is an improvement from where we were as a country.
Jobs in the North East have grown consistently over the last 18 months, and whilst there is much to be done, it is noticeable that our prospects considerably favour us here when compared to the Euro countries, with the possible exception of Germany.
They forecast an overall fall in output and incomes of 0.4% this year for the Euro area.
In contrast they expect better results from the non Euro countries. The UK is expected to grow by 1.3% and 2.2% (3.5%), Sweden by 1.1% and 2.8% (3.9%) and Denmark by 0.3% and 1.7%.(2%)
The reasons behind the differences are worth analysing. The Euro countries have a balance of payments imbalance, poor business performance, and banking / credit problems. More importantly they did not get their economies into line, so some states have built up large trade deficits which they can no longer finance or afford. The result of both these errors is a recession machine.
Meanwhile Sweden, Denmark and the UK, the three higher income countries out of the Euro, can follow policies that work better for them. They have 3 years of superior growth to look forward to as a result, according to the EU itself.
If you want an example of Miliband's Britain then you only have to look at Spain and France - countries where the tough decisions have not been taken and where growth and jobs remain a distant dream.
